By Sia Choi, AU-USEA Writers Fellow

As CCUS projects expand globally, a key question increasingly influences their ability to gain public support, qualify for incentives, and secure funding: How can we ensure the CO2 remains underground permanently?

Permanence is a long-term technical and regulatory requirement to ensure safety. To qualify for the 45Q tax credit, which offers an economic incentive for capturing carbon from industrial and power generation facilities ($85 per metric ton) and for Direct Air Capture ($180 per metric ton), the captured CO2 must be stored permanently in deep geologic formations (or used for enhanced oil recovery and other methods of CO2 utilization). The Environmental Protection Agency’s Class VI permit provides the framework for demonstrating permanence through rigorous siting, construction standards, monitoring plans, and long-term management standards. Without reliable evidence that CO2 will remain contained, projects cannot access federal incentives and struggle to secure investment.

This is why permanence has become a defining element of CCUS credibility. Communities expect assurance that nearby projects do not leak, and regulators need accurate geological data to issue Class VI decisions. Developers and investors depend on long-term storage performance to justify capital commitments and ensure eligibility for federal incentives. In this sense, permanence is where environmental integrity, public acceptance, and financial feasibility intersect.

As federal incentives grow and more projects are deployed, digital monitoring is emerging as the key part of the CCUS value chain. Physical infrastructure alone cannot demonstrate long-term containment, but data can fill the gaps. Therefore, ensuring this permanence relies on high-quality, continuous data.

For years, traditional GHG monitoring has relied primarily on bookkeeping methods that estimate emissions using process data, emission factors, and other parameters. While these methods provide a useful baseline, they often underestimate actual emissions due to leaks, inefficiencies, or unreported sources. For instance, the Global Methane Project has highlighted these limitations by showing that emissions estimated through bookkeeping methods can differ significantly from those measured directly in the atmosphere.

Modern digital MRV employs various tools – continuous sensor networks, remote sensing platforms, and real-time data analysis – to significantly improve early anomaly detection and long-term storage verification. Artificial Intelligence is among these tools. AI algorithms can analyze seismic activity, track plume migration, and recognize early signs of leakage. Unsupervised learning methods, such as clustering and principal component analysis (PCA), detect abnormal changes in seismic signals without prior labeling. Some models use probability-based approaches to simulate leakage scenarios and assess their likelihoods, helping operators develop proactive mitigation strategies and ensure regulatory compliance.

Digital twins, which are virtual, data-driven replicas of physical CCUS assets such as pipelines, injection wells, and reservoirs, further enhance digital monitoring systems. They visualize CO2 flow, identify anomalies using exception-based surveillance, and track pressure and temperature conditions across the system using continuously updated data. By relying on model-based optimization, digital twins also improve efficiency through variable-speed drives, multi-station coordination, and predictive maintenance.

The digital transformation also extends into space. U.S. satellite systems such as NASA’s OCO-2 and OCO-3 provide continuous, high-resolution CO2 measurements that complement on-the-ground monitoring. NASA’s Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) instrument on the International Space Station has demonstrated the ability to detect methane using its unique spectral signature, and the agency’s partnership with Carbon Mapper helps identify and track methane and CO2 sources such as pipeline leaks and landfills. Together, these space-based tools offer independent, top-down verification that strengthens the MRV systems essential for long-term carbon storage.                  

In the U.S., where 45Q is fueling unprecedented CCUS investments, digital MRV is no longer optional. It supports eligibility, builds public trust, and ensures long-term safety. Communities planning new CO2 infrastructure need transparent monitoring, while regulators and investors require dependable data streams to ensure compliance and safeguard project viability.

However, challenges remain. There are no unified national standards for digital MRV, creating uncertainty for developers navigating between state and federal systems. Instead, the field is guided by a mix of international standards, national regulations, and protocols from standards organizations and voluntary carbon markets. Monitoring tools, such as satellites, sensors, and reservoir models, often operate independently rather than as integrated networks. Smaller emitters may face high infrastructure costs, and inconsistent public access to data can weaken trust as projects expand.

There are opportunities for integration and uniform development. Nascent national digital MRV guidelines that incorporate AI, satellite observations, and sensor networks into Class VI compliance could create more consistent expectations for project developers. Policymakers may also explore ways to integrate top-down and bottom-up monitoring approaches so that satellite data, ground sensors, and subsurface measurements reinforce one another. Ultimately, increasing transparency will be essential; communities benefit from clear, accessible information about how CO2 is stored beneath their areas.

As CCUS deployment accelerates under 45Q and across emerging projects nationwide, dependable, transparent data will be critical for scaling carbon storage in ways that align with climate and energy goals.